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Pakar Ekonomi : Malaysia akan mengalami kemerosotan ekonomi yg teruk selama 4 ta

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Post on 30-5-2012 04:51 PM |All posts

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Economists: Greek euro exit threatens deep recession in Malaysia
By Shannon Teoh
May 30, 2012

Supporters of the extreme-right Golden Dawn party sing the Greek national anthem during a rally in Athens May 29, 2012. Reuters pic

KUALA LUMPUR, May 30 A Greek departure from the euro zone would cause a second recession in as little as four years in Malaysia as the repercussions may be felt throughout the global economy, Bloomberg reported analysts and economists as saying today.

Economists told Bloomberg that investors are now betting on the small Mediterranean country leaving the euro zone soon.

Although Greece is only responsible for 0.4 per cent of the world economy, anxiety over the June 17 Greek elections has already helped wipe almost US$3 trillion (RM9.5 trillion) from global equities this month.

A Greek exit from the euro zone could reduce Chinas expansion to 6.4 per cent this year, from 9.2 per cent in 2011, economists at China International Capital Corp (CICC) said last week.

Malaysia, along with the rest of Asia, has increased trade with China for years and the Asian giant is now its top trade partner.

But the worlds second-largest economy is cooling and a further slowdown means its consumption cannot fill a US and EU-sized hole, as the Wall Street Journal put it in a recent analysis of the global economy.

A euro-region crisis would also mean a renewed, deep recession would be highly likely in Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, Taiwan and Korea, Robert Prior-Wandesforde, Singapore-based director of Asian economics at Credit Suisse, was quoted as saying by Bloomberg today.

The business wire added that Prior-Wandesforde calculated that exports to the euro zone account for more than five per cent of total GDP in Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and Taiwan.

Malaysia has reported a 4.7 per cent GDP growth for the first three months of the year, a third consecutive quarterly drop since it posted a 7.2 per cent increase in the second quarter of 2011.

Analysts have warned Malaysia to brace for a significant slowdown here due to rising linkages with top trade partners including China, which economists say is headed for a sixth consecutive quarterly drop in growth, with worse to come.

Chinese exports, 19 per cent of which go to the European Union, slowed unexpectedly in April. They may fall 3.9 per cent this year if Greece exits the euro, compared with a 10 per cent gain without an exit, CICC projected.

Citigroup economists, who earlier forecast chances of the departure at as much as 75 per cent, are now assuming as a base case that Greece will leave at the beginning of 2013, according to Bloomberg.

It also reported that Bank of America Merrill Lynch strategists estimate the euro-regions GDP would contract at least four per cent in the recession that follows, similar to the decline after Lehmans 2008 collapse that resulted in the global financial meltdown.

A Greek departure from the currency would inflict collateral damage, says Pacific Investment Management Cos Richard Clarida, a view echoed by economists from Bank of America Merrill Lynch and JPMorgan Chase & Co.

At worst, it could spur sovereign defaults in Europe as well as bank runs, credit crunches and recessions that may spark more euro exits, Bloomberg reported today.

Institute of International Finance managing director Charles Dallara also told Bloomberg the cost of a Greek exit would probably exceed the

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Post on 30-5-2012 04:57 PM |All posts
risau aku tengok malaysia nih, hutang banyak sangat..perbelanjaan yang macam tak masuk akal..nak beli undi punya pasal...
return = knowledge????
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Post on 30-5-2012 04:59 PM |All posts
abe jip kata hutang tak lepas 55% KDNK nugara..kalo hutang dah 98% nanti kata hutang negara tak lepas 100% KDNK nugara pulak
aku adalah aku..engkau adalah engkau
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Post on 30-5-2012 05:08 PM |All posts
Post Last Edit by baghal_bortuqal at 30-5-2012 17:15

tompang tanya:

sbg propesenel bidang kewangan; ntah bilamasa malaysian insider ni ada publish artikel positive outlook pasal ekonomi?


what used to be interesting balanced view evolved to "alternate view" which now degenerated to outright propa mechanism jah.
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Post on 30-5-2012 05:08 PM |All posts
Post Last Edit by SemarMendem at 30-5-2012 17:19

Reply 1# gogo2

  


EUROPE NEWS
May 28, 2012, 12:11 p.m. ET

Indonesia Urges Greece to Remain in the Euro

  
By I MADE SENTANA, ERIC BELLMAN and ROBERT THOMSON

JAKARTAIndonesian Vice President Boediono urged that Greece remain in the euro zone "for the sake of everyone" as worries about the European economy spread.

Indonesia Vice President Boediono, pictured in April, is a former Bank Indonesia governor and finance minister.

But he said he expects China to act soon to stimulate its own weakening economy, which could help up shore up growth in Asia even if Europe continues to struggle.

The vice president, who like many Indonesians goes by only one name, said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal that he believes Greece could learn from Indonesia's experience with the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis, when the Indonesian economy shrank almost 14% amid skyrocketing inflation following years of overinvestment.

During the crisis, Indonesia was forced to accept tough austerity measures imposed by the International Monetary Fund in return for financial assistance, including steps to sell troubled state assets, cut spending and dramatically trim debt.

Greece, too, will have "to bear the burden to the maximum" before it can fully recover, Mr. Boediono said. That includes staying in the euro zone, even though doing so will force Greece to accept more austerity measures than it would like, he said. Although some stimulus is needed, he said, a key lesson from 1997-98 is that "fiscal health should be maintained."

Indonesia and other Asian countries are watching the European debt crisis closely because of fears that Europe's troubles could cut demand for their exports, as well as scare off investors who prefer to park their money in bigger economies perceived as safe havens.

Already, fears of a Greek exit have caused risk-averse foreigners to pull out of Indonesian markets in May. Last week alone, foreign investors sold off more than half their net purchases of stocks and bonds in the first quarter.

Still, Mr. Boediono, a former Bank Indonesia governor and finance minister, said he remains optimistic that growth in Southeast Asia's largest economy will be strong this year, and potentially reach a 7% annual rate by the end of the current government's term in 2014. "There are sources of growth here that are not too dependent on the global economy," he said.

Indonesia's economy has shown its resilience to global economic turbulence by maintaining close to 6% average annual growth since 2008, thanks largely to the strong household consumption that generates over 50% of the nation's gross domestic product.

It has also benefited from strong Chinese demand for the many commoditiesit produces, including coal and palm oil.

Mr. Boediono said that despite China's recent slowdown, which could hurt growth in a region that depends on it for exports, he believes the government there will take measures to stimulate its economy sooner rather than later. "They have to," he said.

Defending Indonesia's recent controversial policy to impose a 20% tax on raw mineral exports, the vice president said the move was "not meant to be resource nationalism. Our intent is to use our natural resources to strengthen our national economic structure."

"We are fully aware that to develop our natural resources we need capital" that the country doesn't have, Mr. Boediono said.

The government has repeatedly said the taxes are designed to push mining companies to add value to the industry by developing refining capabilities ahead of an industrywide ban on the export of unrefined minerals in 2014.

Investors are fearful that the policy, along with a new regulation that requires some foreign mining companies to divest their stakes to 49% after 10 years of production, are signs that the government is backtracking on the long-term guarantees necessary for stable investment in the country.

Mr. Boediono said the policies were little different from those elsewhere. "The wave of nationalism is everywhere in the world; it's like a reflex response" when growth is weaker, he said.

Write to I Made Sentana at i-made.sentana@dowjones.com and Eric Bellman at eric.bellman@wsj.com

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303674004577432252531861764.html
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Post on 30-5-2012 05:13 PM |All posts


tang mana artikel tu kata ekonomi malaysia merosot teruk selama 4 tahun?

soklan:
1. Ada paham hinggerish atau teda paham hinggerish?
2. Nak kenceng? kantoi.
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Post on 30-5-2012 05:14 PM |All posts
tang mana artikel tu kata ekonomi malaysia merosot teruk selama 4 tahun?

soklan:
1. Ada paha ...
baghal_bortuqal Post at 30-5-2012 17:13

die nak bgtau ekonomi msia slamat klau anwart jd pm
Kaulah kangkung hidupku...
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Post on 30-5-2012 05:15 PM |All posts
die nak bgtau ekonomi msia slamat klau anwart jd pm
dino Post at 30-5-2012 17:14



    i have such suspicion. tunggu apa komen TT.
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Post on 30-5-2012 06:15 PM |All posts
tompang tanya:

sbg propesenel bidang kewangan; ntah bilamasa malaysian insider ni ada publish art ...
baghal_bortuqal Post at 30-5-2012 17:08



  mana perginya formula genius ko yg kononnya boleh selamatkan Greece?
Georgetown World Living Heritage!
World Food Heaven
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Post on 30-5-2012 06:29 PM |All posts
balaci pencacai pulau dah dtg nak konar tolong kaber TT.
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Post on 30-5-2012 06:29 PM |All posts
tang mana artikel tu kata ekonomi malaysia merosot teruk selama 4 tahun?

soklan:
1. Ada paha ...
baghal_bortuqal Post at 30-5-2012 17:13



    Hang tak paham BI ke?

KUALA LUMPUR, May 30 A Greek departure from the euro zone would cause a second recession in as little as four years in Malaysia as the repercussions may be felt throughout the global economy, Bloomberg reported analysts and economists as saying today.
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Post on 30-5-2012 06:30 PM |All posts
deyy bodo... gomen has no business being in business. back off from demanding to tekober penang port.
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Post on 30-5-2012 06:30 PM |All posts
kelengtong2 economist hanya layak dibakul sampah ajer. Lantakla Greece nak keluar euro ka, amerika ka, apa pedulik. Sekarang ni pun, ramai jer indon2 naik tongkang datang m'sia. Kalau  Greece keluar euro, maka makin betambahla mat2 indon naik tongkang datang m'sia? Ke guaner? Nak layan economist punya ramalan, sampai kiamat tak abis. Baik balik rumah makan nasik
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Post on 30-5-2012 06:30 PM |All posts
Hang tak paham BI ke?

KUALA LUMPUR, May 30 A Greek departure from the euro zone woul ...
gogo2 Post at 30-5-2012 18:29




sapa yg tak paham? repeat.


boleh?
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Post on 30-5-2012 06:32 PM |All posts
rasa macam nak bawak kluar skema jawapan pak menteri jer.....
BN MUST GO!
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Post on 30-5-2012 06:33 PM |All posts
sapa yg tak paham? repeat.


boleh?
baghal_bortuqal Post at 30-5-2012 18:30


Cuba saper2 terjemah sikit kasi clear....
** Linux YLMF User **
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Post on 30-5-2012 06:34 PM |All posts
kelengtong2 economist hanya layak dibakul sampah ajer. Lantakla Greece nak keluar euro ka, amerika k ...
apam Post at 30-5-2012 18:30


greece keluar = risk kpd euro ada negara lain mungkin keluar kalu terdesak = tiada keyakinan = malapetaka.

isu skang ni itali; negara yg ada utang bertrillion2 euro, dan sepanyol yg merupakan ekonomi terbesar eu17 selepas jarmang dan perancis. sepanyol kadar penggangguran 22%, kadar pengangguran golongan muda melebihi 50%, dan malapetaka kecelekaan ekonomi sepanyol adalah sbb 10 tahun rega hartanah naik mencanak2.
*ala sebagaimana tolol2 mcm REHDa kata kenaikan rega hartanah tu bagus dan bawa kemakmuran ekonomi.


jadi risikonya ialah:
1. di pentas ekonomi donia kedudukan sepanyol dan itali dari segi GDP
2. hilangnya keyakinan atas euro = implikasi yg belom boleh digapai
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Post on 30-5-2012 06:38 PM |All posts
2nd recession in 4 years = kemelesetan ekonomi yg ke-2 dlm tempoh 4 tahun ya TT....bukan kemelesatan ekonomi selama 4 tahun

yg pertama 2008, us subprime crisis
yg kedua 2012, greek debt crisis - dijangka, hopefully not
recession = 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth
BN MUST GO!
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Post on 30-5-2012 06:38 PM |All posts
greece keluar = risk kpd euro ada negara lain mungkin keluar kalu terdesak = tiada keyakinan = m ...
baghal_bortuqal Post at 30-5-2012 18:34



    Yg paling penting Malaysia akan terjejas teruk ko tak ulas. Macam haram jer translasi ko.
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Post on 30-5-2012 06:38 PM |All posts
rasa macam nak bawak kluar skema jawapan pak menteri jer.....
hzln Post at 30-5-2012 18:32


kompleks sangat mek... baik jangan. mungkin mek buleh bagi pencerahan di mana artikel tu kata "Malaysia akan mengalami kemerosotan ekonomi yg teruk selama 4 tahun kalau Greece keluar dari Euro"; atau sekurang2nya, membawa maksud sptmana claim TT?
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Post on 30-5-2012 06:38 PM |All posts
Yg paling penting Malaysia akan terjejas teruk ko tak ulas. Macam haram jer translasi ko.
gogo2 Post at 30-5-2012 18:38



    tolol. baca posting nomot 11 mek seling tu. idiot
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Post on 30-5-2012 06:41 PM |All posts
2nd recession in 4 years = kemelesetan ekonomi yg ke-2 dlm tempoh 4 tahun ya TT....bukan kemelesatan ...
hzln Post at 30-5-2012 18:38



   
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Post on 30-5-2012 06:42 PM |All posts
ada perlu mek tambah apa2 ker? tak perlu kot...
BN MUST GO!
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Post on 30-5-2012 06:48 PM |All posts
Beyehhh mek
yang tak tau punya..pls diam diam saja!
jangan masuk ikan dan udang punya comment!
~ courtesy of calvynlee, poremer at Stock & Economy
die, die nicht wissen, Unterhaltruhe gefallen!
setzen Sie keine Unsinn Anmerkung!
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Post on 30-5-2012 06:50 PM |All posts
Indon boleh
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