La Nina dan El Nino - Update: Impact to Malaysia -

dexa

Impak La Nina atasi El Nino
Oleh Mohd Azis Ngah




La Nina ialah perubahan cuaca sejuk menyebabkan hujan, berlawanan El Nino yang membawa kemarau

DALAM tempoh seminggu bermula 3 Mac lalu, bandar raya Kuala Lumpur dan Johor Bahru, Johor dilanda banjir kilat akibat hujan lebat antara tiga hingga tujuh jam menyebabkan lebih 300 kenderaan musnah dihanyutkan air manakala lebih 1,200 penduduk terpaksa berpindah.

Banjir kilat itu menyebabkan kira-kira 40 orang terperangkap dalam bangunan Pusat Dagangan Dunia Putra (PWTC) manakala hampir semua jalan utama di ibu negara mengalami kesesakan teruk berikutan air naik mendadak.

Kebiasaannya, menjelang Mac, cuaca di Malaysia dikatakan mengalami musim panas tetapi situasi sebaliknya berlaku. Semua ini mempunyai kaitan dengan La Nina, iaitu fenomena yang mana suhu permukaan di Lautan Pasifik Tengah dan Timur menjadi lebih rendah daripada biasa.

Fenomena ini berlaku disebabkan tekanan atmosfera permukaan di khatulistiwa Pasifik Barat menurun menyebabkan pembentukan awan lebih banyak dan hujan lebat. Ringkasnya, La Nina ialah perubahan cuaca sejuk menyebabkan hujan dan ia berlawanan dengan fenomena El Nino yang membawa perubahan cuaca panas menyebabkan kemarau.

Di Malaysia, secara umumnya jumlah hujan melebihi purata dijangka berlaku di kebanyakan tempat di seluruh negara, namun, taburan hujan ini bergantung kepada pelbagai faktor lain selain faktor La Nina.

Perlu diketahui, kekuatan La Nina dan faktor masa juga memberi impak yang berbeza terhadap jumlah taburan hujan.



Hakikat sebenarnya, walaupun beberapa kawasan dilanda banjir kilat, negara ini masih selamat kerana ketika ini perubahan yang berlaku itu hanya disebabkan 慙a Nina lemah

rhys88

mmg btul cuaca tak menentu skg ni..last week sejukk sgt.. ari ni, bermula semalam..panas ya amattzz.. sabo je le..

aku_EnSeM

bukn la nina ngan el nino ni normal ke?

dexa

Originally posted by aku_EnSeM at 22-3-2009 20:04
bukn la nina ngan el nino ni normal ke?

nope - it is not
it is unusually warm condition -
warmer than normal -

thus - it is not normal -

just like la nina -
it is unusually cool condition -
cooler than normal -

thus - it is also not normal -

aku_EnSeM

Originally posted by dexa at 22-3-2009 08:34 PM



nope - it is not
it is unusually warm condition -
warmer than normal -

thus - it is not normal -

just like la nina -
it is unusually cool condition -
cooler than normal -

thus ...

i meant, the phenomenon. La Nina and El Nino tu mmg fenomena yg blaku kt Pacific Ocean lbh kurg 5 tahun sekali. Dr dulu kot ade bende tu, itu mmg blaku psl Pacific Ocean tu bsr sgt n suhu air die xsme dr 1 tempat ke tempat yg lain. Bende ni mmg normal. So kite akan expect cuaca ekstrim dlm period 5 tahun sekali. Just like thunderstorm and stuff like that.

[ Last edited by  aku_EnSeM at 22-3-2009 21:39 ]

aimanutd

cik nina n cik nino pada amnya boleh membawa bencana pada manusia spt kita tlh maklum iaitu banjir besar yakni bilamana hujan berterusan @ kemarau berpanjangan bilamana hujan x terus turun pd temph yg lama...

jika mana kite tgk pada pola tahun kejadian maka amatlah penting negara n rakyat bersiap sedia terutama plg penting dgn ilmu kefahaman ttg ancaman ini

pada pendapat saya.. ancaman kedua2 kembar x iras nie bukanlah normal sgt tp boleh diramal n ditangani scr bijaksana.. kalo dulu bile ancaman berlaku pd tahun 2000 seingat saya,rakyat kite resah n gelisah maka amat ler penting pd barisan ilmuwan dlm forum ini misalnya (cam berkempen ade tak.. ) utk sama2 menyumbang n berkerjasama utk kebaikan bersama... peace..

dexa

Meteorologi pantau cuaca tidak menentu
Oleh Mohd Azis Ngah



Jerebu antara kesan El Nino yang pernah melanda tanah air.

SITUASI cuaca tidak menentu sejak beberapa minggu ini terutama di sebelah petang menimbulkan kebimbangan kepada orang ramai terutama di bandar besar kerana mereka berhadapan dengan risiko kemungkinan terperangkap dalam hujan lebat serta banjir kilat.

Apa tidaknya, hanya dalam tempoh lebih dua jam hujan lebat tanpa henti, air akan naik mendadak dan sudah pasti akan menyebabkan banjir kilat terutama di kawasan yang tidak mempunyai sistem perparitan yang baik.

Kini, Jabatan Meteorologi Malaysia berterusan memantau perkembangan perubahan masa terkini dengan memberi maklum balas segera kepada pihak berkaitan sebagai langkah awal berjaga-jaga terutama kepada Unit Bencana Negara di bawah Jabatan Perdana Menteri.

Pengarah Bahagian Pembangunan Teknikal Jabatan Meteorologi Malaysia, Dr Wan Azli Wan Hassan, berkata pihaknya akan menghantar laporan terus kepada unit berkenaan serta jabatan lain termasuk Jabatan Pertanian, Jabatan Perikanan serta pelbagai agensi lain termasuk keselamatan.

揓ika keadaan diramalkan serius, kita akan hebahkan segera kepada pihak berkenaan dan orang ramai tetapi ketika ini kita hanya menghebahkan ramalan cuaca masih dalam keadaan biasa atau normal. Tiada apa yang perlu dibimbangkan.

揅iri perubahan cuaca yang ditunjukkan sekarang berbeza dan sukar diramal. Masih banyak ruang kajian untuk saintis mengkaji hal ini kerana ia terlalu kompleks.


Wan Azli menunjukkan proses pembentukan El Nino.

揗emang sekarang dianggap sedang berlaku La Nina, walaupun tahap bacaan agak tinggi tetapi lemah dan menuju ke arah neutral. Pertubuhan Meteorologi Dunia dan saintis sendiri belum dapat tentukan arah tuju cuaca dunia sekarang dan ia agak pelik.

揃erdasarkan model kajian yang mengkaji unjuran cuaca akan datang, model itu sendiri tidak boleh tentukan hala tuju sebenarnya,

fariepari

pergh..sampai ke bumbung air banjir   

aku_EnSeM

When you guys said that La Nina and El Nino is not normal, what do you actually mean?

El Nino ngan La Nina ni, dr pengalaman aku, mmg sati cycle cuaca Bumi, kn? Cume impak die x disenangi manusia. Tp impak yg buruk tidak menjadikan bende tu abnormal. Psl El Nino ngan La Nina ni mmg akan jadi. For me, abnormal is klu tibe2 La Nina ngan El Nino tu xde... Itu bru la pelik, kn?

For me, normal is something predictable. Abnormal is something that makes every one says "hah? apesal cmtu?" That is why I classify La Nina and El Nino to be normal. We can predict when it happens, we know what impacts do they impose onto us, and how long this chaotic weather will stabilise.

At least, that's what normal mean by physicists, don't know if environmental scientists have different definition.

amazed

Tuesday June 9, 2009 MYT 5:34:25 PM
Hotter and drier days ahead with El Nino
By YENG AI CHUN

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysians can expect hotter and drier days till September as an El Nino phenomenon is forming.

While the real extent of the El Nino impact could only be gauged sometime in August, more open burning was expected to contribute to more haze, the Meterological Department said in a report.

Malaysia experiences a hot and dry season in the months of June, July and August and temperatures range between 33C to 34C.

It is understood that temperatures could soar another 3C during El Nino.

Natural Resources and Environment Minister Datuk Douglas Uggah Embas said the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) satellite report had identified 125 hot spots in the country since May 25 to June 7.

揟he ministry has taken a pro-active measure by reviving the committee which monitors hot spots.

A national haze main committee meeting was held in February and June 8 and local government agencies have been ordered to be on a stand-by for any eventuality,

dexa

Jerebu petanda awal El-Nino




KUALA LUMPUR - Kemerosotan kualiti udara yang menyaksikan cuaca mula berjerebu di beberapa kawasan dianggap petanda awal kedatangan fenomena El-Nino mulai Ogos ini.

Berdasarkan pemantauan Jabatan Meteorologi Malaysia, El-Nino sudah terbentuk ekoran cuaca panas dan kering semasa musim Monsun Barat Daya, namun kekuatannya hanya dapat dikenal pasti mulai Ogos ini.

Serentak dengan itu, Kementerian Sumber Asli dan Alam Sekitar mahu beberapa langkah pencegahan diambil termasuk mengurangkan aktiviti pembakaran terbuka yang kini meningkatkan jerebu.

Kementerian itu dalam satu kenyataan akhbarnya semalam telah mengambil beberapa langkah awal membentuk kerjasama dengan beberapa agensi kerajaan yang berkaitan sebagai persediaan awal.

"Mesyuarat Jawatankuasa Induk Jerebu Kebangsaan telah diadakan 23 Februari dan 8 Jun lalu untuk memastikan semua agensi kerajaan bersedia menghadapi fenomena ini,'' jelasnya.

Selain itu, pihak kementerian turut melakukan pemantauan udara dengan kerjasama Unit Udara Polis Diraja Malaysia dan syarikat penerbangan swasta untuk mengesan pembakaran terbuka di beberapa kawasan berisiko seperti Selangor, Pahang dan Johor.


*****************************************************************************************

..kat shah alam berjerebu pasal el nino ni prolly -
KL belum jerebu sangat lagi..   at least not yet -

amazed

Wednesday June 10, 2009

Temperatures may go up by 3˚C with El Nino phenomenon

By YENG AI CHUN


GENTING HIGHLANDS: Brace yourself for hotter days. The El Nino phenomenon is coming.

And with warmer weather, the Government warns that the haze will worsen.

Natural Resources and Environment Minister Datuk Douglas Uggah Embas said the Meteorological Department has reported the El Nino phenomenon.

揌owever, its full effect can only be gauged sometime in August,

naen

Originally posted by dexa at 10-6-2009 07:25

..kat shah alam berjerebu pasal el nino ni prolly -
KL belum jerebu sangat lagi..   at least not yet -

hooo .. orang start perasan shah alam berjerebu dari minggu lepas ..
1 jun tu aa paling teruk .. macam tetiba je shah alam berasap
ingatkan ada kebakaran ke apa ke .. tapi check paper online, takde lak pape khabor nye

anyway .. ni nak share gegambors masa jerebu 2 jun 2009 .. >< 7pm







1 jun lagi heavy aa .. menara uitm pun hehampir tak nampok langsung!


tapi kalau dijangkakan akan lebih panas masa ogos nanti .. adoyai~
nanti bulan puasa .. panassssss ..

amazed

mmg grey ajer s alam semenjak saploh menjak nih... aku tak tau ler dari mana jurubu nih datang.. tapi bila baca paper  hah!!  pasai el nino ni ler... bukan caiyaq kan iceberg ajer... habih sumer cuaca berubah dibuatnyer.... pshawwwwww

naen

Krisis air di Lembah Klang?
+ utusan malaysia

KUALA LUMPUR 10 Jun

amazed

2009/06/14
Committee to study El Nino impact




LUMUT: The Agriculture and Agro-Based Industry Ministry will set up a committee to study the impact of the El Nino phenomenon on the agriculture industry, said its minister, Datuk Noh Omar.

[table=200][/table]To be headed by the ministry's secretary-general, Noh said the committee would comprise representatives from all departments and agencies under the ministry and other experts.

"The committee will meet next week to discuss the phenomenon and then submit its recommendations to the cabinet."



"The ministry is taking a proactive measure although the effects have yet to be felt here," he said after opening a Key Performance Indicators briefing in Segari yesterday. -- Bernama

amazed

Monday July 6, 2009
El Nino weather menace looms for frail economies
By Rene Pastor

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A nascent El Nino weather cycle threatens to wreak more economic havoc and disrupt raw material production across a wide swath of the world, evoking memories of the killer edition of 1998.



An aerial view of the flooded
outskirts of Trinidad, Beni, some
400 kilometers (250 miles) northeast
of La Paz, February 22, 2007.
A nascent El Nino weather cycle threatens
to wreak more economic havoc and disrupt
raw material production across a wide swath
of the world, evoking memories of the killer
edition of 1998. (REUTERS/Handout)

The timing could not be worse. This El Nino appears to be developing as the world is struggling to emerge from the worst economic conditions since the Great Depression. Eleven years ago, a damaging El Nino occurred in the middle of the Asian financial crisis which roiled financial markets.

"El Nino is a little bit like recession: you are in it before you can say you have one. If it continues as it is now, the historians will say the El Nino started in May," said David Jones, head of climate analysis in Australia's Bureau of Meteorology. Jones said they could declare an El Nino in weeks.

During El Nino, an abnormal warming of the waters of the equatorial Pacific unhinges weather patterns in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond. A La Nina weather pattern, in which waters cool, was in place last year.

In 1998, El Nino-related storms, floods, tornadoes and mudslides killed more than 2,000 people and caused billions of dollars in damage to crops, infrastructure and mines.

Michelle L'Heureux, head of the U.S. Climate Prediction Center which tracks El Nino, said this version may not approach the one in 1998, the strongest weather anomaly in 150 years. The CPC is an office under the U.S. National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration.

If the anomaly does recur with severity, drought in Asia could lift grain prices, which are already near historic levels due to supply shortages, while storms that would disrupt crude production in the Gulf of Mexico may be minimized.

Mike Palmerino, U.S. agricultural meteorologist with DTN Meteorlogix, added: "This one has a little more going for it. But a year ago at this time it looked like we were building toward an El Nino and everything just totally fell apart toward the end of the summer, where all the Pacific circulation patterns changed and we actually slipped back into a La Nina."

COMMODITIES WEATHER WATCH

Some forecasters fret that an early sign of this El Nino is the weak annual monsoon plaguing India, one of the world's biggest producers and consumers of everything from sugar to soybeans.

The monsoon rains are the lifeblood for farmers in India. Its faltering sugar crop is a prime reason why sugar prices are at their highest levels in three years.

China typically turns to South America for soybeans during the U.S. growing season. But the 2009 crops from Brazil and Argentina are suffering from drought and U.S. soybean stocks are at a 32-year low -- less than two weeks of normal commercial supply.

Shawn McCambridge, grains analyst with Prudential Bache Commodities in Chicago, said the El Nino could "dry out the second half of 2009 in Australia and it can also affect South American production.

"It's developing a little too late to really have much of an impact on the Northern Hemisphere, but the concern would be in the Southern Hemisphere (crops)," he said.

Indonesia, one of the biggest producers of palm oil and a large consumer of sugar and rice, faces drought.

Australia is one of the world's biggest wheat producers and has barely recovered from the worst drought in 100 years which hit a few years ago.

Rob Imray, general manager of grain trading and agricultural risk management firm Farmarco, said the Australian wheat crop is off to a good start but the southern areas could suffer if no rain arrives in August and September.

EFFECT ON METALS?

Severe floods may disrupt mining operations in Chile, the world's biggest copper producer, and Peru, among others.

India is the world's biggest gold buyer when farmers, whose annual income is tied to the monsoon, buy the metal for the festival of lights celebrating the end of their harvest in November.

Still, Andrew Montano, a director at bullion dealer ScotiaMocatta in Toronto, said, "the bulk of the demand is coming from international investors, more so than from the Indian subcontinent."

In the United States, El Nino could funnel wind shear into the Atlantic basin and hinder storm formation during the annual hurricane season.

Vernon Kousky, former head of the CPC, said there could "be a suppression of Atlantic hurricane activity, provided that further intensification of El Nino occurs during the next couple of months."

A strong El Nino could lead to a mild winter in the Northeast, the world's biggest heating-oil market. The snow pack in the Western United States may also suffer and affect hydroelectric power generation.

But Stephen Schork, editor of The Schork Report in Pennsylvania, said the weak economy would mute the weather phenomenon's impact on energy markets.

"There's just a lot of supply out there," he said.